Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.156469 0.185390 0.219364 0.262543 0.316412 0.382001 4.688196e-01
2025-08-24 0.121683 0.157017 0.203144 0.268917 0.362201 0.492774 6.949259e-01
2025-08-31 0.097515 0.135211 0.189084 0.274193 0.410143 0.627966 1.023791e+00
2025-09-07 0.080355 0.118798 0.178441 0.282182 0.468239 0.810298 1.548788e+00
2025-09-14 0.067143 0.105138 0.168666 0.289618 0.532459 1.046026 2.381717e+00
2025-09-21 0.055198 0.090756 0.154163 0.284951 0.576159 1.280362 3.494121e+00
2025-09-28 0.042374 0.072079 0.127509 0.248638 0.539853 1.320653 4.184957e+00
2025-10-05 0.036883 0.065452 0.121904 0.254794 0.608479 1.701621 6.728880e+00
2025-10-12 0.033062 0.061163 0.119942 0.269211 0.711400 2.310254 1.194457e+01
2025-10-19 0.029466 0.056555 0.116179 0.278505 0.810762 3.060618 2.125724e+01
2025-10-26 0.026478 0.052592 0.112896 0.288445 0.925158 4.093453 4.008263e+01
2025-11-02 0.023274 0.047508 0.105674 0.284572 0.991191 5.054654 6.954432e+01
2025-11-09 0.020022 0.041845 0.096020 0.270972 1.017763 5.945459 1.172645e+02
2025-11-16 0.018037 0.038777 0.092399 0.276261 1.141881 7.997265 2.722141e+02
2025-11-23 0.016299 0.035970 0.088801 0.280600 1.274839 10.795640 7.205544e+02
2025-11-30 0.014884 0.033699 0.086161 0.287874 1.443198 15.080741 2.514376e+03
2025-12-07 0.013638 0.031626 0.083588 0.294700 1.629387 21.283709 1.268027e+04
2025-12-14 0.012281 0.029004 0.078654 0.289299 1.731597 27.414963 7.540428e+04
2025-12-21 0.010446 0.024793 0.067701 0.251885 1.540978 25.774865 1.239382e+05
2025-12-28 0.009705 0.023503 0.066038 0.257767 1.730622 36.941702 9.539415e+06
2026-01-04 0.009186 0.022749 0.065996 0.272064 2.037543 59.298683 NaN
2026-01-11 0.008629 0.021783 0.064985 0.281202 2.327946 92.348779 NaN
2026-01-18 0.008131 0.020913 0.064107 0.291022 2.668399 149.481959 NaN